See how a bad first decade can reshape the rest of retirement income.
This calculator compares a market-dependent withdrawal plan with a plan that covers part of the income need first. The goal is clarity, not hype, so you can see how timing risk changes retirement durability.
Why households use it
- Stress-test retirement timing before discussing any recommendation.
- Compare raw market exposure with a dependable income floor.
- Walk into a callback with better questions and a clearer frame.
What happens next
Same retirement. Two very different opening decades.
Useful for showing how repeated early losses make withdrawals harder to recover from.
Red flag
This plan is making the portfolio do two hard jobs at once.
It is trying to fund spending and recover from losses with the same dollars. That is when the first bad years get expensive fast. A dependable income floor gives the portfolio room to breathe instead of asking it to be both paycheck and recovery engine.
2000 scenario
Market-only depletion
Age 75
Projected depletion age under this scenario.
Income-floor depletion
Age 80
Projected depletion age with dependable income help.
What this is really saying
In the 2000 scenario, the market-only path lasts to Age 75, while the income-floor version stretches to Age 80. Same retirement, very different first-decade pressure.
Where the breathing room shows up
The income-floor path keeps $252,668 more portfolio value in year 10, which means the rebound years are working with more capital instead of less hope.
What the income floor is really doing
It covers $24,000 of annual need before the portfolio is touched, which is another way of saying fewer market dollars have to moonlight as monthly income.
Years the floor buys back
+5 yrs
Difference across the 30-year horizon.
Extra balance after year 10
+$252,668
Extra portfolio value remaining after the first decade.
Want Greg's read on this?
Want Greg to pressure-test this with you?
Qualified requests are reviewed in under 15 minutes during business hours. Educational information only until suitability review.
Your Best Interest Comes First.
Greg follows up directly with Spokane, Eastern Washington, and North Idaho households. You are not routed into an automated campaign.
Why the first losses hit harder
Once retirement withdrawals begin, the portfolio is no longer just compounding. It is also sending money out the door. A weak first decade means there are fewer dollars left to participate in the recovery years.
Why average return is not enough
Two retirement plans can have the same long-run average return and still end in very different places. Timing determines how much capital is left to recover after each withdrawal year.
What an income floor changes
A dependable income floor can cover part of the spending need before the portfolio is touched. That changes the withdrawal math in the years when market stress is most dangerous.
What Greg reviews next
A useful result is the start of the conversation, not the finish line.
After this stress test, the next question is how to separate essential income from optional spending, where rollover assets fit, and whether part of the income need should be protected before more market exposure is taken.
Authority-first follow-up, not a generic funnel.
Qualified requests are reviewed in under 15 minutes during business hours. Educational information only until suitability review.
Your Best Interest Comes First.
Greg follows up directly with households in Spokane, Eastern Washington, and North Idaho. The goal is a clear next step, not an automated campaign.
Build on the diagnostic
Sequence risk is one part of the retirement income picture.
Once you see the stress from early losses, the next step is deciding how much income should come from the market, how much should come from more dependable sources, and how rollover assets should be sequenced.
Retirement income planning
Move from the stress test into a written income framework for the first decade of retirement.
Retirement gap analyzer
Estimate the income shortfall first, then decide which sources should carry each part of it.
About Greg's process
See the suitability-first approach behind the way these tools and conversations are structured.
Practical takeaway
An income floor does not erase risk. It reallocates where risk shows up.
The point of a dependable income floor is not to predict markets. It is to decide which expenses should still get paid if markets are weak at the exact wrong time.
Methodology
How the calculator is built
Return path assumptionsOpen
The selected scenario supplies the first 10 annual returns. After that, the simulation uses a fixed 6 percent nominal tail for the remaining years in the 30-year horizon. This is an illustration tool, not a forecast.
Withdrawal sequencing assumptionsOpen
Withdrawals happen at the start of each year, which is the point of maximum sensitivity for retirement sequence risk. The annual withdrawal need then increases by 3 percent per year for inflation.
Income floor treatment in this versionOpen
The dependable income floor is treated as a flat annual amount that covers part of the withdrawal need first. It does not grow with inflation in this version, and it is not a recommendation for any specific product or strategy.
Educational limitations and sourcesOpen
Historical annual return inputs come from the S&P 500 total-return history used in the tool dataset. Educational information only until suitability review. Recommendations require a personal conversation and fit analysis.
FAQ
Questions this page should answer before a callback
What is sequence of returns risk in retirement?Open
Sequence of returns risk is the danger of getting weak market years at the start of retirement, when withdrawals have already begun. Those early losses can permanently reduce how long a portfolio lasts, even if long-term average returns look reasonable later.
Why do early retirement losses matter more than later losses?Open
Once withdrawals begin, the portfolio is doing two jobs at once: funding income and trying to recover. If a loss hits early, fewer dollars remain invested for the rebound years that follow.
How does an income floor change the simulation?Open
This page treats the income floor as a flat annual amount that covers part of the withdrawal need before the portfolio is touched. That lowers the portfolio withdrawal burden and can preserve more balance for later years.
Does this tool forecast future market returns?Open
No. The first 10 years use the selected historical market window beginning in 2000, 2008, or 2013. Years 11 through 30 use a flat 6 percent nominal return to avoid unrealistic cycling through the same historical returns again.
Turn the result into a practical retirement income plan.
If the first decade looks fragile, the next move is separating essential income from optional withdrawals and deciding which dollars still belong in the market. That is the conversation Greg leads.
Educational information only until suitability review. Guarantees are subject to the claims-paying ability of the issuing insurer.